Each November, Canadian value investor Peter Cundill would find out which country has the worst performing stock market since the start of the year and then visit for a few weeks looking for cheap stocks.
I pilfered and altered Cundill’s idea. Each year around this time I find out the worst performing index and do an A to Z sweep, looking at every stock on their market.
Last year the loser was Greece, with its stockmarket falling 45.5% over the first 10 months of 2015. And then it fell further over November and December. I had a good look and found a few things of interest. But no investments came from it. Hopefully we’ll have more luck with this year’s hunt.
And this year’s loser? That’d be Greece again.
This might be getting interesting.
I’ll let you know if I find anything good. Unless it’s really good, then you’ll read about it in a future quarterly report.
Does anyone know of an international broker who allows Australian’s to trade on the Athen Stock Exchange without getting rogered on brokerage/FX?
The first stock that I’d look at in Greece is OPAP. It’s a very high quality business currently selling for 13 times depressed earnings.
Try Interactive Brokers. I’m not a client (I invest internationally through our fund only) but I’ve heard only good things on pricing.
Be warned, when I tried to sign up around 5 years ago it was an arduous process. Perhaps that’s changed since.
I checked IB, they don’t do Greece. As an aside, I haven’t tried them yet (I’ll sign up soon though) but I’m wary about very low cost brokers, especially in international markets, because they often supplement their brokerage fees by selling their customers’ trade data to HFT firms, so the low costs are actually a false economy when you factor in the worse prices for stocks (because you’ve always got a HFT firm front-running you on every trade).
True, IB does not do Greece. However, I think it’s good risk management that they don’t. If Greece’s cheque book continuously bounces, there’s a significant risk that Greece will be kicked out of the EU an revert back to the Drachma. This could cause a massive devaluation on a clients portfolio – triggering margin calls en masse. As always, the “innocent” client will sue IB for allowing them to do it in the first place.
I’ve been an IB client for over 4 years – back when II suggested that it was a good idea to load up on US Blue Chips when the AUD vs USD was trading 1.05:1. Brilliant! I’ve recouped my membership fees for many lifetimes.
IB are really cheap and provide great service! You can trade / invest 24 hrs per day and call staff for help 24 hrs per day during the week. Eg. A currency trade might only cost US$3. A US$200K share trade might cost US$30. Other international markets such as UK and Germany are a bit more expensive eg. $200K trade for US$50.
IB’s market cap would put it in the Top 20 of Australian companies – based on AUD. Being a listed entity, SEC would be all over them if they comprised a customer’s data. Rest assured, it’s unlikely IB operate like BBY Ltd.
Unless one is running a billion dollar portfolio, it is unlikely any HFT firm will front-run your trade. Besides, I haven’t heard of any HFT firm beating Buffett’s long term record. Most are struggling to keep up with the Index.
Back in the good old days, IB allowed all investors to borrow money > US$100K, on margin, for as low as 1% pa (1.5%pa if < $100K). Now, before you cringe at the thought of margin loans, I am also anti-margin loans. However, I had more than ample funds in my home loan offset account to pay it all off (overnight) if there were any issues.
So, I was able to borrow at 1%pa and invest into blue-chip US stocks that paid an average 2.5%p.a.
Unfortunately, all good things come to an end. About 2 years later, ASIC (the smartest guys in the room – NOT!) decided to shut it down for Aussie investors and IB was forced to comply. Another really smart move by ASIC… especially when Aussie banks were charging 7.5%pa on margin loans (now 6%pa).
AFAIK IB does not offer Athens stock exchange.
The greek index was always dominated by banks, which are ultimately worth zero. Quality companies from Greece are not near 52w lows. In 2012 everything was cheap over there, now the picture is more differentiated.
Hi – there are definitely bargains in the Greek market but do note that MSCI Greece is only 9 stocks (!) and the index performance has been dominated by banks. Names I would suggest looking at, which are perhaps less depressed than banks but have strong franchises strill trading on low multiples of depressed profits would be: Fourlis, Sarantis, Jumbo, Titan Cement and Hellenic Exchanges. Ellaktor is ripe for activism and quite a fun SoTP but seems to have problems on contract discipline within the core construction division.
Gareth, good work of disciplined processes and procedures digging way in the trenches…
forget the luck… we can sit on cash as kings whilst patiently waiting for the gem or cigar butt to be uncovered…
I am thinking of Metka, Folli Folli or Thrace Plastics for Greece.
For Portugal CTT Correis or Jeronimo Martins might be interesting.