Last Friday I was lucky enough to meet some of the world’s best investors. Guest hosting Sky News live from the Sohn Hearts and Minds conference at Sydney’s Opera house, I sat next to Howard Marks, Kerr Neilson, Shane Finemore and Leah Zell.
All four have very different approaches to investing, from global small caps (Leah Zell) right through to distressed debt and private equity (Howard Marks).
What struck me most was how consistent they were when asked to hypothesise about the future.
Here’s the full interview with Oaktree’s Howard Marks.
Note his comments on crystal ball gazing towards the end:
“I am not someone who invests on the basis of expectations for the future … When you react to what actually happens rather than guess about what might happen, I think you make less mistakes”.
Or here’s the interview with Shane Finemore from Manakay.
“We look for great businesses that we can understand that are trading at a big discount to our appraisal value and so it’s really about where we go shopping rather than any particular view about market valuations in aggregate”.
Many people think good investors have some special insight into the future. Yet what actually makes them good is recognising that the future is unknowable.
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